Everyone’s p(doom), A–Z

223 people who have stated a p(doom) in public, and 22 who were asked on record and declined. Each links to their exact words and the source.

• 15 (15.ai) <1%
• Aaron Bergman >50%
• Abe Murray 0%
• Adam Holter 0%
• Adi Baradwaj ~0.01%
• Aella 75%
• AI Notkilleveryoneism Memes ~25%
• Ajeya Cotra <50%
• akira (林央, Hayashi Akira) ~90% overall
• Alan Chan 46%
• Alex Bores declined
• Alex Turner ~1 in 3
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez declined
• Ali Ghodsi ≈0%
• Anatoly Karlin ~30%
• Anatoly Yakovenko (toly) declined
• Andrew Critch ~85%
• Andrew McAfee ~0%
• Andy Masley >1%
• Angelo Dalli under 1%
• Anshu Sharma 90%
• Arthur Conmy >10%
• Audrey Tang declined
• Auguste Prompt 5% with ASI
• Avalon Warren 33%
• Basil (@LinkofSunshine) ~1%
• Ben Goertzel π%
• Ben Kelly around 5% or 10%
• Ben Smith 5–10%
• Benjamin Mann 0–10%
• Bill Karr ≈0%
• bioshok (有路翔太) 30–40%
• Blake Lemoine 0.015%
• bone (@boneGPT) ≈0%
• Buck Shlegeris >5%
• Carl Feynman 43%
• Carl Shulman 20–25%
• Casey Hart <1%
• Casey Muratori declined
• Casey Newton 5%
• Charlie Sykes >10%
• Chon Tang ~10%
• Chris Albon 0%
• Connor Leahy ≈99%
• Curtis Huebner 90%
• Dan Elton ~0.25%
• Dan Hendrycks >80%
• Daniel Faggella ~40%
• Daniel Kokotajlo 15% (if Plan A)
• Dario Amodei 25%
• Dave Gilbert 1%
• David Dalrymple (davidad) <5%
• David Duvenaud ~85%
• David Krueger >50%
• David Manheim ~50%
• David Shapiro 0.22%
• David Sirota >10%
• David Veksler 50%
• David Wood up to 40%
• Dean Ball 0.01%
• Demis Hassabis declined
• Destiny (Steven Bonnell) <1%
• Devin Elliot zero
• Diego Caleiro 69%
• Dima Krasheninnikov ≥10%
• Dirk Bruere ~50%
• Dominik Lukes <0.1%
• Donald Trump declined
• Drew Carson 0%
• Dwarkesh Patel ~10%
• Ed Zitron 0%
• Eli Lifland ~25%
• Eliezer Yudkowsky declined
• Elon Musk 20%
• Emad Mostaque 50%
• Emmett Shear 5–50%
• Evan Hubinger >10%
• Flo Crivello ~10%
• Florian Brand 0%
• Frank Boerman 0%
• Gary Marcus ≈3%
• Geoffrey Hinton 10%
• Geoffrey Irving ≈50%
• Geoffrey Miller 50%
• Gil Mark 1% or less
• Grady Booch ≈0%
• Greg Colbourn ~90%
• Greg Meyer ≈0%
• Guillaume Verdon (Beff Jezos) declined
• Guillaume Verdon ≈0%
• Gustav Dahlander ~50%
• Hanchi Sun 30%
• Haseeb Qureshi ≤5%
• Henry Shevlin ~15%
• Himanshu Tyagi ~2%
• Hodan Omaar declined
• Holden Karnofsky 10–90%
• Holly Elmore 20–40%
• Ian Andrews 0
• Ian Bremmer ≈0%
• Irina Rish <1%
• Jaan Tallinn 1–50% per 10× compute (~7% point estimate)
• Jack Feynman 0
• Jan Kulveit 20–30%
• Jan Leike 10–90%
• Jason Palmer ~10%
• JB Pritzker declined
• Jensen Huang 0%
• Jeremy Gillen 90–99%
• Jesse Hoogland 60–80%+
• Jey Grayson 90%
• Joe Allen ~1%
• Joe Carlsmith >10%
• Joe Kelly <1%
• Joep Meindertsma 40%
• John (@jrysana) ~0%
• John Sherman 75%
• Josh Snider ~40%
• Julian Togelius ≈0%
• Just Loki ≈0%
• Justin Drake >50%
• Justin Halford >50%
• Justin Helps 70%
• Katja Grace 10–90%
• Kenneth Folk ≈0%
• Kenneth Stanley declined
• Kevin Roose 5%
• Kitten ≥10%
• Lachlan Phillips <1%
• Laurence Siegel ≈0%
• Leopold Aschenbrenner ~5%
• Lex Fridman ~10%
• Liam Robins 17.42%
• Lina Khan 15%
• Liron Shapira 50%
• Liv Boeree 5–99%
• Louis Berman ≈100%
• Luke Elin 20%
• Luke Muehlhauser >5%
• Lumpenspace ~30%
• Lyman Stone ≈0%
• Magnus Hambleton 2-3%
• Malcolm Wright <1%
• Marc Andreessen ≈0%
• Marcus Williams 70%
• Mark Friedenbach ≈0%
• Mark Schmidt <0.1%
• Matthew Adelstein 2.6%
• Matthew Tromp 70%
• Max Harms declined
• Max Spero ≪1%
• Max Tegmark >90%
• Meaghie Walker Williams 90%
• Median Human (@FlavrSavr) 75%
• Michael Ellsberg 99%
• Michael Gogel ≈0%
• Michael P. Frank ≈0%
• Michael Timothy Bennett 1%
• Michael Vassar single-digit % (by 2027)
• Mike Israetel ≈0%
• Mikhail Samin ~80%
• Mikita Balesni >10%
• Minh Nhat Nguyen >50%
• Momentum Chaser virtually 0
• Nate Silver 5–10%
• Nate Soares ≥95%
• Nathan Labenz 10–90%
• Nathan Worsley 1%
• Nathan Young 5%
• Neel Nanda 10–20%
• Nick Guerrera ≈0%
• Niklas Anzinger 0.1–1%
• Nikola Jurkovic >50%
• Noah Smith 0.1%
• Nora Belrose 1–2%
• Onufry Wojtaszczyk >50%
• Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry 0
• Pasha Kamyshev ~5%
• Paul Christiano 4% / 15%
• Paul Crowley >80%
• Peter Berezin ~75%
• Phil Libin ≈0%
• Praful Mathur 0
• prerat 50%
• Quintin Pope 4%
• Rafael Ruiz de Lira 10–30%
• Richard Ngo 31%
• Richard Ren 50–65%
• Ro Khanna 5–10%
• Rob Leclerc 0
• Rob Miles 10–90%
• Rob Wiblin ~10%
• Robert Miles declined
• Robert Wright 4–5%
• Rohan Anil declined
• Rohin Shah 1–50%
• Roko Mijic 35–40%
• Roman Yampolskiy 99.999999%
• Ronald Vining >50%
• roon <1%
• Ruben Gallego declined
• Ryan Dahl 0.01%
• Sam Altman declined
• Samuel Marks 15-20%
• Scott Aaronson ~2%
• Scott Alexander 33%
• Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh <50%
• Shane Legg 5–50%
• Shaw Walters declined
• Simon Vans-Colina ~5%
• Simon Willison maybe 5%
• somewheresy 0%
• Spencer Schiff 30–70%
• Stephen Casper 5–10%
• Steve Phillips 80%
• Steven Byrnes ~90%
• Stuart Armstrong 10–90%
• Stuart Russell declined
• Sundar Pichai declined
• tautologer ~5%
• Ted Cruz declined
• Ted Sanders ≈0%
• Tenobrus ≈20%
• thebes <5%
• Tim O'Neil ≈0%
• Tim Spalding 0%
• Toby Ord 10%
• Tom Davidson ~20%
• Tomas Pueyo ~10%
• Tristan Harris >50%
• Victoria Krakovna >10%
• vie (@viemccoy) ≈0%
• Vikram Chandra 20–25%
• Vinod Khosla ≈0%
• Vitalik Buterin 12%
• Vladimir Shakirov ~20%
• Wei Dai 80–90%
• Will MacAskill 1–10%
• Yan Granat >99.9999%
• Yann LeCun ≈0%
• Yoshua Bengio 20%
• Zack Shapiro 15%
• Zvi Mowshowitz ~70%
• Zy 0.2%