The p(doom) database · person
Daniel Losey’s p(doom)
≈0%
In their words
Daniel Losey (Builds genetic algorithms and low-resource language translation tools) put their p(doom) at ≈0%, on X on Sep 29, 2026.
my p(doom) is basically 0, but my p(I'm wrong about my p(doom)) is like %19.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
"Basically 0", recorded as said.
In context
Among building AI in the database (37 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 233 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.