The p(doom) database · person
Dan Elton’s p(doom)
~0.25%
In their words
Dan Elton (Founder and Director, Metascience Observatory) put their p(doom) at ~0.25% (extinction from AI, next 5-10 years), on X on Dec 17, 2024.
My p(doom) for extinction from AI in the next 5-10 years is like 0.25%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.