The p(doom) database · person
Holly Elmore’s p(doom)
20–40%
In their words
Holly Elmore (Executive Director, PauseAI US) put their p(doom) at 20–40% (20% extinction; up to 40% worst civilizational tragedies), on a podcast on Sep 27, 2025.
My pat answer is that it's like 20 to 40% on the worst - the variation is like 20% extinction and then to like 40%, the worst civilizational tragedies, but not everyone dies.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
For "everyone dies by 2050": closer to 20. Says the number varies day to day.
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.