The p(doom) database · person
Ronald Vining’s p(doom)
>50%
In their words
Ronald Vining (Advisor and AI educator (Learnami AI, AgenticInflux)) put their p(doom) at >50%, on X on Mar 10, 2024.
my p(doom) is >50%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.