The p(doom) database · person
Michael Timothy Bennett’s p(doom)
1%
In their words
Michael Timothy Bennett (AI researcher) put their p(doom) at 1% (humanity destroys itself, with AI, next 50 to 100 years), on a podcast on Dec 11, 2025.
So I think without AI, our chances of blowing ourselves up are maybe 1 or 2%, and I would say 2%. And with AI, I feel like it's about half that. So 1%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Says AI halves his baseline; "numbers I kind of made up based on gut intuition."
In context
Among academics in the database (22 people), the median is 15%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.