The p(doom) database · person
Josh Snider’s p(doom)
~40%
In their words
Josh Snider (Writer, LessWrong) put their p(doom) at ~40%, (forum) on Sep 11, 2026.
My p(doom) earlier this year was about 40%. It's moved up and down based on continued progress in open-weights models (up) and the recent political freakout over AI Doom (down)
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.