The p(doom) database · person
Angelo Dalli’s p(doom)
under 1%
In their words
Angelo Dalli (Chief Scientist, Umnai) put their p(doom) at under 1% (next 20 years), on X on Nov 30, 2023.
My P(doom) for the next 20 years is under 1%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.