The p(doom) database · person
Nicholas Agar’s p(doom)
0.00002 or 0.000001
In their words
Nicholas Agar (Professor of ethics, University of Waikato) put their p(doom) at 0.00002 or 0.000001 (AI sends us extinct), in an article on Oct 13, 2026.
If you bully me into putting a number on it, bearing in mind that I am not an especially numerate academic philosopher, I might say something like 0.00002 or 0.000001 — they both seem like appropriately low probabilities to me.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Given as probabilities (fractions): 0.002% or 0.0001%. Essay title: "What is your current p(doom)? I'm just a philosopher, but mine is low."
In context
Among academics in the database (23 people), the median is 10%. Across all 233 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.