Leopold Aschenbrenner’s p(doom)
In their words
Leopold Aschenbrenner (Founder, Situational Awareness LP (AGI-focused investment fund); former OpenAI Superalignment researcher) put their p(doom) at ~5% (AI x-risk: extinction or similarly bad outcome, next 20 years (from 2023)), on their blog on Mar 29, 2023.
I might put AI xrisk in the next 20 years at ~5%. But 5% chance of extinction or similarly bad outcome is, well, still incredibly high!
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Said in March 2023; later on OpenAI’s Superalignment team, now runs the AGI-focused fund Situational Awareness LP. Stake recorded as at the time of the statement is uncertain, so independent.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.