The p(doom) database · person
Scott Aaronson’s p(doom)
~2%
In their words
Scott Aaronson (Computer scientist, UT Austin; former OpenAI alignment) put their p(doom) at ~2% (classic paperclip-maximizer AGI doom only), in an article on Dec 13, 2023.
I once gave a ~2% probability for the classic AGI-doom paperclip-maximizer-like scenario.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Adds a "much higher" unstated probability for any AI-involved existential catastrophe.
In context
Among ex-frontier labs in the database (8 people), the median is 12.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.