The p(doom) database · person
Destiny (Steven Bonnell)’s p(doom)
<1%
In their words
Destiny (Steven Bonnell) (Streamer; political commentator) put their p(doom) at <1% (total human extinction from AI, next 100 years), on a podcast on Feb 17, 2026.
I would say less than one percent in the next hundred years
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Opening estimate on Doom Debates; raised to 5% by the end of the episode.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2026 | <1% | total human extinction from AI · next 100 years | podcast |
| Feb 17, 2026 | 5% | AI doom · next 20 years | podcast |
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.