The p(doom) database · asked and declined

Andy Barkett’s p(doom)

Founder, Miriel; formerly engineering manager at Google, Nvidia and Meta · asked on record, no number given

What they said

Andy Barkett was asked for a p(doom) on the record (Oct 8, 2026) and did not give a number.

I think assigning a specific probability to something like that is misleading. There are certainly real risks associated with AI, including potentially existential ones.

Source.

Asked "Should we worry that there is a 10% chance that AI will kill us all?" (Berkeley Social Sciences interview).

Why this is here

The database records refusals as well as numbers. A refusal is not a number, so it never counts toward any median. If Andy Barkett states a number in public, it gets a row. What p(doom) means, and the case against it.

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