The p(doom) database · person
Drew Carson’s p(doom)
0%
In their words
Drew Carson (CTO at Verso AI) put their p(doom) at 0%, on X on Jun 19, 2024.
This is why my p(doom) is 0.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.