The p(doom) database · person
Victoria Krakovna’s p(doom)
>10%
In their words
Victoria Krakovna (Research scientist, Google DeepMind) put their p(doom) at >10% (advanced AI causing human extinction, next decade), on X on Sep 11, 2026.
I think there is a >10% chance of advanced AI causing human extinction in the next decade
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | >10% | advanced AI causing human extinction · next decade | x |
| Jan 12, 2023 | ~20% | her own death from AI; later restated as 'a 20% probability of doom' · before 2100 | podcast |
In context
Among frontier labs in the database (20 people), the median is 12.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.