The p(doom) database · person
Diego Caleiro’s p(doom)
69%
In their words
Diego Caleiro (Philosopher and evolutionary anthropologist) put their p(doom) at 69%, on X on Sep 20, 2026.
I agree with Bostrom, and my P(doom) is 69%, P(bloom) 30%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Recorded as said; the number may be partly tongue-in-cheek.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | 69% | p(doom) | x |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 73% | p(doom) | x |
| Dec 5, 2023 | ~85% | p(doom) | x |
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.