The p(doom) database · person
Lachlan Phillips’s p(doom)
<1%
In their words
Lachlan Phillips (Founder; games director, former story artist) put their p(doom) at <1%, on X on Dec 18, 2023.
My p(doom) < 0.01
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Stated as fraction <0.01.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.