The p(doom) database · person
Lex Fridman’s p(doom)
~10%
In their words
Lex Fridman (Podcast host; AI researcher) put their p(doom) at ~10% (AGI/ASI destroys all of human civilization), on a podcast on Jun 5, 2025.
the probability that AGI and then ASI might destroy all of human civilization. I would say my p(doom) is about 10%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Stated while asking Sundar Pichai, who declined to give a number.
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.