The p(doom) database · person
Dan Hendrycks’s p(doom)
>80%
In their words
Dan Hendrycks (Director, Center for AI Safety) put their p(doom) at >80% (p(doom), unspecified), on X on Apr 2, 2023.
As it happens, my p(doom) > 80%, but it has been lower in the past. Two years ago it was ~20%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Says it was ~20% two years earlier.
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.