The p(doom) database · person
Lyman Stone’s p(doom)
≈0%
In their words
Lyman Stone (Demographer) put their p(doom) at ≈0%, on X on Apr 17, 2025.
my p(doom) on ai is tbh basically zero
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among academics in the database (22 people), the median is 15%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.