The p(doom) database · person
Minh Nhat Nguyen’s p(doom)
>50%
In their words
Minh Nhat Nguyen (AI researcher (LLM training); previously HUD evals; former climate activist) put their p(doom) at >50% (long timelines), on X on Sep 10, 2026.
my p(doom) is above 50% but much longer timelines. i believe current architectures won't do it, and there are pre-existing data/compute bottlenecks
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Said >50% three times that day; long timelines, not current architectures.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | >50% | p(doom) · long timelines | x |
| Sep 14, 2024 | >90% | p(doom) | x |
| May 15, 2024 | ~90% | p(doom) | x |
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.