The p(doom) database · person
Nora Belrose’s p(doom)
1–2%
In their words
Nora Belrose (Head of interpretability, EleutherAI) put their p(doom) at 1–2% (really catastrophic outcome from alignment failure), on a podcast on Nov 8, 2023.
My current risk estimation, or my p(doom), the probability that I assign to a really catastrophic outcome from alignment failure, is roughly one or two percent.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Says she was at ~50–55% in May 2022 and updated down.
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.