The p(doom) database · person
Luke Elin’s p(doom)
20%
In their words
Luke Elin (CEO, cybersecurity) put their p(doom) at 20%, on X on Sep 10, 2026.
My p(doom) has been at 20% for a long time. It’s still there.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.