The p(doom) database · person
Yan Granat’s p(doom)
>99.9999%
In their words
Yan Granat (Campaigner at SayForever; manager at Open Longevity) put their p(doom) at >99.9999%, on X on Dec 4, 2024.
My P(doom) is 99.9999%+
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.