The p(doom) database · person
Mikhail Samin’s p(doom)
~80%
In their words
Mikhail Samin (Director, AI Governance and Safety Institute) put their p(doom) at ~80% (AGI causes human extinction), (forum) on Jun 30, 2026.
My p(doom) is probably around 80%. The 20% come mostly from the US government making sure that no one on the planet creates superintelligence until we know how to do that safely
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.