The p(doom) database · person
Andy Masley’s p(doom)
>1%
In their words
Andy Masley (Writer and researcher) put their p(doom) at >1%, on X on Sep 14, 2026.
To be clear as a doomer (in that my odds of doom are >1%)
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Calls himself a doomer on that basis and says he is otherwise "very excited" about AI's benefits. Open-ended: counts as 1% in the median.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.