Himanshu Tyagi’s p(doom)
In their words
Himanshu Tyagi (Co-founder, Sentient (open-source AGI); professor, IISc) put their p(doom) at ~2% (p(doom) as asked on Doom Debates (Liron's definition)), on a podcast on May 22, 2025.
Yeah, so I thought of an estimate after looking at your show earlier. And my PDoom is, it's a high number. It's about 2%. And it's mostly because there are too many unknown unknowns for this.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Doom Debates, ~43:22 (Substack auto-transcript, which spells him 'Hemanja'). He adds that on priors alone it would be 'much less than 1%'; 2% is his stated answer.
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.