The p(doom) database · person
Abe Murray’s p(doom)
0%
In their words
Abe Murray (GP, Alley Corp) put their p(doom) at 0%, on X on Dec 4, 2024.
my p(doom) is also 0%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among investors in the database (12 people), the median is 1.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.