The p(doom) database · person
Dwarkesh Patel’s p(doom)
~10%
In their words
Dwarkesh Patel (Host, Dwarkesh Podcast) put their p(doom) at ~10% (p(doom), unspecified), on a podcast on Jul 24, 2024.
Ten percent or something like that.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Lower than his ~20% of Dec 2023.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 2024 | ~10% | p(doom), unspecified | podcast |
| Dec 3, 2023 | ~20% | p(doom), unspecified | podcast |
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.