The p(doom) database · person
Jack Feynman’s p(doom)
0
In their words
Jack Feynman (Physicist; formerly energy operations and research at DoE, DoD, Shell) put their p(doom) at 0, on X on Sep 13, 2026.
My p(doom) is now 0. My p(bliss) is 50.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | 0 | p(doom) | x |
| Feb 23, 2026 | 30% | p(doom) | x |
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.