The p(doom) database · person
Stuart Armstrong’s p(doom)
10–90%
In their words
Stuart Armstrong (Research fellow, Future of Humanity Institute; later co-founder, Aligned AI) put their p(doom) at 10–90% (AI posing a serious or deadly threat to humanity), in an interview on Oct 2, 2015.
It would be absurd to put a probability higher than 90 percent on AI being a danger to humanity. However, it would be equally absurd to put a probability lower than 10 percent on whether it poses a serious threat.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Pre-dates the term p(doom).
In context
Among academics in the database (22 people), the median is 15%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.