The p(doom) database · asked and declined
Alice Friend’s p(doom)
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What they said
Alice Friend was asked for a p(doom) on the record (Oct 5, 2026) and did not give a number.
there isn't really a rigorous scientific way to do those yet
Asked at the New York City Council hearing (Oct 5, 2026) by Speaker Julie Menin to quantify the risk of the worst-case catastrophic scenario, speaking for their company. Also said forecasting catastrophic risk "is not a perfect science at this stage". Quote as reported (Fortune).
Why this is here
The database records refusals as well as numbers. A refusal is not a number, so it never counts toward any median. If Alice Friend states a number in public, it gets a row. What p(doom) means, and the case against it.