The p(doom) database · person
Dean Ball’s p(doom)
0.01%
In their words
Dean Ball (AI policy analyst; former White House AI Action Plan author) put their p(doom) at 0.01% (AI takes control of the world and kills large numbers of people), on a podcast on Nov 21, 2025.
If what we're talking about is AI systems taking control over the world and killing large numbers of people... My P(doom) is very low. It's sub 1%, it's 0.01% or something like that.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Hedged: "or something like that."
In context
Among government in the database (5 people), the median is 7.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.