The p(doom) database · person
Benjamin Mann’s p(doom)
0–10%
In their words
Benjamin Mann (Co-founder, Anthropic) put their p(doom) at 0–10% (existential risk from AI), on a podcast on Jul 20, 2025.
somewhere between 0 and 10%
Source · not yet re-checked against the primary source.
Lenny's Podcast; taken from episode summaries, full transcript paywalled.
In context
Among frontier labs in the database (20 people), the median is 12.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.