Flo Crivello’s p(doom)
In their words
Flo Crivello (Founder and CEO, Lindy) put their p(doom) at ~10% (doom (unspecified; contrasted with 'pure utopia')), on a podcast on Nov 15, 2024.
Like, for the record, my PDoom, insofar as I can quantify it, which I cannot, but if I had to, like my vibe is like 10% or something like that and so there's like a 90% chance that we live in like a pure utopia.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Latent Space, 'Agents @ Work: Lindy.ai', ~01:04:20. Transcript speaker labels are offset by one line but the answer follows Alessio's question to Flo. In 2023 on The Cognitive Revolution he said only 'I don't think there's, like, a 99 percent chance of doom. But even if it's 10 percent...' (hypothetical, not used).
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.