Justin Drake’s p(doom)
In their words
Justin Drake (Researcher, Ethereum Foundation) put their p(doom) at >50% (p(doom), undefined in the exchange (context: whether humanity survives technology acceleration)), on a podcast on Mar 23, 2026.
I think you just need to keep hope. You need to put aside the so-called P(doom) — the probability of doom. My P(doom) now is relatively high. I think it's more than 50%. But I don't want to say this out loud. [...] Even though my P(doom) went way up in the last few weeks and months, this is a strong opinion weakly held.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Bankless podcast, 'Ethereum's Quantum Strategy with Justin Drake', segment 'Closing thoughts on probability of doom' (1:40:04), hosts Ryan Sean Adams and David Hoffman. Quote copied from the transcript published on ethereum.org. Episode date 2026-03-23 from Apple Podcasts listing (https://podcasts.apple.com/pl/podcast/ethereums-quantum-strategy-with-justin-drake/id1499409058?i=1000756742917); ethereum.org metadata shows a placeholder 2025-07-15 upload date, but the episode references Opus 4.5, so 2026 is right. He calls it 'a strong opinion weakly held'.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.