Wei Dai’s p(doom)
In their words
Wei Dai (Independent researcher) put their p(doom) at 80–90% ('humanity has somehow irreversibly messed up our future within 10 years of building powerful AI', within 10 years of powerful AI), (forum) on Apr 28, 2023.
My own number for this is 80-90%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Comment under Paul Christiano's post, answering his framing (Christiano gave 46% for the same item).
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.