Ed Zitron’s p(doom)
In their words
Ed Zitron (Writer and podcaster (Where's Your Ed At, Better Offline); AI-hype critic) put their p(doom) at 0% (human extinction from AI 'strictly', on the current course of pursuing superintelligence), on a podcast on Sep 17, 2026.
So are we talking strictly AI-based? Because if we dot the world with data centers, we have a climate disaster that's coming for us, which will actually potentially eradicate humanity. But if we're talking strictly about AI, I stand at zero because we are, we have not defined superintelligence. I don't think LLMs are the path to it, and I don't think I see it happening.
Source · not yet re-checked against the primary source.
Diary of a CEO "Great AI Debate". Quote from the HappyScribe transcript (YouTube not reachable here). Later in the same show he said "1%" but redefined it as power-system failures, not extinction; not recorded.
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.