The p(doom) database · person
Carl Shulman’s p(doom)
20–25%
In their words
Carl Shulman (Independent researcher; advisor to Open Philanthropy) put their p(doom) at 20–25% (forcible AI takeover), on a podcast on Jun 26, 2023.
At this point depending on the day I might say one in four or one in five.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Would have said ~10% in the 2000s, before deep learning.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.