The p(doom) database · person
Niklas Anzinger’s p(doom)
0.1–1%
In their words
Niklas Anzinger (Founder & CEO of Infinita) put their p(doom) at 0.1–1%, on X on Nov 29, 2023.
My p(doom) is 0.1-1%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among investors in the database (12 people), the median is 1.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.