The p(doom) database · person
Ben Kelly’s p(doom)
around 5% or 10%
In their words
Ben Kelly (Game developer (Manacaster)) put their p(doom) at around 5% or 10% (p(doom); most likely via humans as collateral damage to AI), on X on Feb 3, 2025.
my p(DOOM) is around 5% or 10%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.