The p(doom) database · person
Magnus Hambleton’s p(doom)
2-3%
In their words
Magnus Hambleton (VC at byFounders) put their p(doom) at 2-3%, on X on Sep 26, 2025.
my p(doom) has gone from maybe 10% to 2-3%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Down from ~10%.
In context
Among investors in the database (12 people), the median is 1.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.