The p(doom) database · person
Onufry Wojtaszczyk’s p(doom)
>50%
In their words
Onufry Wojtaszczyk (Senior staff software engineer, Google Cloud (AI infrastructure); ICPC World Finals judge) put their p(doom) at >50%, on X on Sep 12, 2026.
And my p(doom) > 50%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Says his posts are his own, not Google's.
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.