The p(doom) database · person
Rob Miles’s p(doom)
10–90%
In their words
Rob Miles (AI safety educator) put their p(doom) at 10–90% (p(doom), as asked on Doom Debates), on a podcast on Aug 23, 2025.
I think anyone whose number is below 10% or above 90% is overconfident. I have a ton of model uncertainty here. I think that sort of any number in the 10 to 90% range is plausibly defensible.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Agrees when the host places him "in the 50 plus zone", then qualifies that it depends on how humanity responds.
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.