The p(doom) database · person
Elon Musk’s p(doom)
20%
In their words
Elon Musk (xAI, Tesla, SpaceX) put their p(doom) at 20% (AI catastrophe / extinction), in an interview on Mar 1, 2025.
only a 20% chance of annihilation
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | 20% | AI catastrophe / extinction | interview |
| Jun 19, 2024 | 10–20% | 'something terrible happening' with AI | interview |
In context
Among frontier labs in the database (20 people), the median is 12.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.