The p(doom) database · person
Jan Leike’s p(doom)
10–90%
In their words
Jan Leike (Former alignment lead, OpenAI; Anthropic) put their p(doom) at 10–90% (a very bad outcome from AI), on a podcast on Aug 7, 2023.
Rob Wiblin: My guess is that it's more than 10% and less than 90%. Jan Leike: Yeah. That's probably the range I would give too.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Range proposed by the host; Leike endorsed it, after saying p(doom) depends on his mood and isn't a useful question.
In context
Among frontier labs in the database (20 people), the median is 12.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.