The p(doom) database · person
Michael Ellsberg’s p(doom)
99%
In their words
Michael Ellsberg (Author) put their p(doom) at 99% (everyone dies, conditional on a robust ASI being built, within one to two years of ASI), on a podcast on Nov 29, 2025.
And so I would say conditional on ASI, my P(Doom) is 99%. I don't know how fast it would happen, one year, two years, maybe immediately.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Conditional on ASI arising.
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.