Michael Vassar’s p(doom)
In their words
Michael Vassar (Former president of the Singularity Institute (now MIRI); investor/entrepreneur) put their p(doom) at single-digit % (by 2027) (AI doom (Doom Debates framing: extinction from superintelligence), by 2027), on a podcast on Aug 18, 2026.
I really don't think this is a useful frame. But in another sense, in a long enough time horizon, it has to be close to one. All things end. And in a short enough time horizon, like 2027, it has to be a single-digit percentage. But even a single-digit percentage is noteworthy and concerning.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Says the frame isn't useful; over a long enough horizon "it has to be close to one". The "tens of percents by 2050" was the host's wording, not his, so not recorded.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.