The p(doom) database · person
Neel Nanda’s p(doom)
10–20%
In their words
Neel Nanda (Mechanistic interpretability lead, Google DeepMind) put their p(doom) at 10–20% (AI causing human extinction, within his lifetime), in an article on Feb 11, 2022.
I'm happy to put at least a 1% chance of AI causing human extinction (my fair value is probably 10-20%, with high uncertainty).
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Written before joining DeepMind; has since said he deliberately doesn't publicize a p(doom).
In context
Among frontier labs in the database (20 people), the median is 12.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.