The p(doom) database · person
Geoffrey Irving’s p(doom)
≈50%
In their words
Geoffrey Irving (Former Chief Scientist, UK AI Security Institute) put their p(doom) at ≈50% (all humans dying from superintelligence, driven by actions in the next few to 10 years), on X on Sep 10, 2026.
I think we have a ~50% chance of all dying as a result of superintelligence, mostly due to actions in the next few to 10 years.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Explained as the mean of a long-held 10–90% range.
In context
Among government in the database (5 people), the median is 7.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.